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Figure 1. Estimated and observed viral load following treatment with placebo (A) or Paxlovid (B) in large-scale campaign treating COVID-19, United States. The left y-axes, black lines, and blue shading indicate the means and 95% CI of SARS-CoV-2 viral load (RNA log10 copies/mL) as estimated by the fitted within-host model. The right y-axes, black dots, and error bars indicate the means and 95% CI of the decrease in viral load since the initiation of treatment as reported in a clinical trial in which 1,126 patients received a placebo and 1,120 patients received Paxlovid during July 16–December 9, 2021 (11). Day one corresponds to the initiation of treatment. Gray circles denote the assumed initial viral load upon infection (V0) corresponding to 1 infectious virus particle in the upper respiratory tract (18).
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